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2017-05-30 15:27:57
Monthly Real Estate Update May 2017
 
 

Troy Warrick
Your 'GET IT SOLD' Realtor
Phone: 303-827-5141
 
troysellshomes@comcast.net
Visit My Website:
https://www.BuyorSellDenverHomes.com
 
Monthly Real Estate Update
May 2017

Market Update

Hello and welcome to the May edition of my real estate update.  My hope is that my e newsletters provide you with valuable up to date information and a quick overview of what's going on in our market. 

The Spring buying season has gotten off to an incredible start.  Sales are up 4.8% over last year, the inventory is about 1% lower and prices are up an average of 9% over last year.  To speak about prices, this 9% increase is definitely not consistent across all neighborhoods of the metro area.  Just about all of Denver, for example, is hot hot hot and homes in popular price ranges between 300 and 600 are flying off the shelves.  Wheat Ridge, Arvada, Englewood & parts of Lakewood all have huge demand and rising prices rising at least 9%.  I've seen other neighborhoods though like in SE Aurora and Highlands Ranch where prices are fairly stagnant and inventory is higher than the market average so it really just depends where you live as far as how much your home's value has increased. 
The latter part of May has brought with it more listings and a bit more competition and with the typical slow down due to end of school year busyness now might be a great time to get out and start looking before the 'masses' ramp up their home searching again.  Just a thought. 
I often get asked if I think our market is in a bubble and will it burst anytime soon.  The short answer is 'no', but a great lender partner of mine has summarized a lot of data to essentially prove this point.  I hope you find it interesting.

What Does A Housing Bubble Look Like?

I still hear or see comments or thoughts from others about why they think our market is in a bubble currently. Our market (price-wise) peaked in 2006, so let's go back and look at the numbers from that year versus last year's numbers and let's see where you see the bubble.
 
 

  2006 2016
Homes for sale 24,534 (December ) 4,265 (December)
New homes built 19,500 9,253
New home permits issued 16,191 10,211
Net migration to Denver 19,000 38,000

 
In 2006 buyers could choose from about 44,000 homes (new and existing) to buy. Last year buyers could choose from about 13,500 homes (new and existing) to buy. Plus, the number of people who moved to Denver in 2016 doubled the number from 2006. So, which year looks like a bubble is around the corner? 2006 easily.
 
Now it takes more than 1 year to create a bubble in real estate, so I went back and looked at the numbers for the 4 years previous plus 2006 or 2016; so 5 years in total.
 
 

  2002-2006 2012-2016
Homes for sale at EOY 5 year average of 22,258 5 year average of 5,726
New homes built Total of all 5 years 93,000 Total of all 4 years 30,000
New home permits issued Total of all 5 years 90,000 Total of all 4 years 37,000
Net migration to Denver 24,000 190,000

 
The number that stands out the most to me is net migration to Denver. Based on this population growth builders should have built about 9,600 new homes from 2002-2006; instead they built nearly 10 times as many!!! That is a HUGE MISMATCH!!! Home builders were stupid and overbuilt. Now for the last 5 years, builders should have built 76,000 new homes or 46,000 MORE than they did build!
 
So, where do you see a bubble?
 

All signs point towards a strong real estate market for Denver over the next 6 months so if your plans include buying or selling a home call me and we can figure out a plan that will best suit your needs. Troy Warrick

 

Market Stats

April sales 4,472 or up 4% over last year

April prices up 9% over last year

The Average Price Of A Single Family Home Was $481,590 or up 9% over last year.

There were only 4,009 active listings for SFR detached homes and only 501 homes were for sale < $400k.

My New Listings
27403 E Euclid Drive in SE Aurora - Under Contract. Listed at $659,900
8532 Forrest Drive in Highlands Ranch - Listed at $622,500

21826 Longs peak lane in Parker - Under Contract in 1 Day. Listed at $355,000 sold for $370,000  

REFER A FRIEND GET $500


If you refer a friend that buys or sells a home from me I'll give you $500!
Click here to Refer A Friend

Mortgage Rates


Conventional 30 year fixed with 20% down-4.25%______
Conventional 5/1 ARM with 20% down-3.125%________
FHA 30 year fixed with 3.25% down-3.75%____________
VA 30 year fixed with 0% down-3.75%____________
Jumbo 30 year fixed rate with 20% down-4.25%________
Jumbo 7/1 ARM with 20% down-3.75%_____________

Links


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Blog Archive
2019-05-16 08:55:43
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2018-12-27 11:52:15
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2018-10-25 09:46:53
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2018-09-27 08:41:25
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2018-09-13 08:15:40
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2018-08-30 09:35:30
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2018-08-16 09:12:31
Building your house? How an agent can help.

2018-07-26 08:27:02
Seller didn't hire an agent? Here's why you should.

2018-07-12 10:18:59
Moving? 4 things people forget to do

Click here to see ALL articles.


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