Hello and welcome to the September edition of my monthly real estate update. My hope is that my e newsletters provide you with valuable up to date information and a quick overview of what's going on in our market.
Exciting News About Me
After 18 years of selling real estate for other companies I have decided to open up my own brokerage. My new company is called POSH Properties of Denver. I am a full service brokerage helping individuals and families buy and sell properties from $100,000 to $1,000,000. I am so excited to be able to design a company that provides a higher level of service than others. This is why I came up with the tagline 'An ELEVATED Real Estate Experience.' I look forward to serving you in the future.
Is Our Tight Inventory Loosening Up?
After tightening for 10 consecutive quarters, the inventory of homes available for sale in metro Denver loosened in the third quarter, according to a report Wednesday from Trulia.
“While it is nothing to celebrate wildly if you are home buyer, it may be a sign that the market is freeing up and that the gridlock is starting to break,” said Ralph McLaughlin, chief economist at Trulia, a residential real estate website.
McLaughlin, in an interview, even coined a new term to Denver’s housing market — “coolingish.”
Metro Denver’s inventory of homes for sale stood at 7,426 on July 1, up 2.8 percent from July 1, 2015, Trulia said. Hardly a huge gain, but metro Denver hasn’t seen a year-over-year increase in the quarterly count of homes available for sale since late 2013.
Nationally, the inventory of homes for sale in the third quarter fell 6.8 percent, marking the fifth consecutive quarter of year-over-year declines in the inventory of existing homes.
I think this is positive for the market overall. This means buyers will have more choices but it can also be good for sellers who are going to purchase another home in Denver. Last Spring and early Summer the market was so hot you probably could sell quickly but then have to compete with multiple offers trying to get another home. Now you have a better chance and more selection of getting the home you really want!
All signs point towards a strong real estate market for Denver over the next 6 months so if your plans include buying or selling a home call me and we can figure out a plan that will best suit your needs. Troy Warrick
Homes on Market both Single Fam & Condo = 8.769 down 1% in listings from July and down 4% compared to the number of listings a year ago
Home Sales in August = 5,427 or up 5% from July but down 7% from last year
Under Contract August = 7,055 or the same as last month and the same as last year.
My New Listings
6890 S Riverwood Way in SE Aurora - Listed for $584,970 Take a virtual tour of this beautiful home at https://tours.virtuance.com/621808
14955 Elsinore Ave in Parker - SOLD! Listed at $529,900
Is Mortgage Credit Too Tight?
I saw a graph from The Urban Institute that is going into my class 'Is the Denver Real Estate Market in a Bubble?' and let me say this...this graph speaks 10,000 WORDS! I wish I could show it to you in my newsletter.
Laurie Goodman at The Urban Institute research Fannie Mae's 6 month delinquency rate by year of loan origination and it is amazing. Here are some highlights-
- For loans originated from 1999-2003 when underwriting was fairly prudent, their 6 month delinquency rate has averaged < 2% and in the first 5 years of the loan, less than 1%.
- For loans originated in 2004, Fannie's delinquency rate is running over 5%.
- Their 6 month delinquency rate is highest for loans originated in 2007 with a rate of nearly 14%.
- For loans originated in 2009 and 2010 their delinquency rate is running a little below 1%.
- For loans originated since 2011, Fannie's 6 month delinquency rate is nearly ZERO!
So, why is Fannie Mae's 6 month delinquency rate so low? Because our credit standards are too tight. Why has this happened? Let me give you 3 reasons-
- The CFPB including their new requirements and rules and their lawsuits and fines of lenders with near dictatorial power and absolution.
- The Department of Justice which has sued lenders for hundreds of billions of dollars.
- HUD which has sued lenders for hundreds of billions of dollars often for minor non-pertinent violations.
So, why would lenders open up their credit box? Lenders and banks are scared to death of our current federal government which is a primary reason why banks have $2 TRILLION sitting at the Fed in excess reserves. When people or companies are fearful they don't spend or invest money.